As I showed yesterday, there seems to be a strong clustering of the strong case soundings around -16.5C at 3000m, while there is significant spread in the weak cases at this level. I went ahead and pulled temperature data for all 41 cases, and plotted the wind report against the absolute difference from T3000m=-16.5C. The result was a -0.52 correlation ... very impressive for a seemingly arbitrary variable.
From here, I molded this variable to maximize the correlation, and then standardized it to the mean and variance of the actual wind reports. The result was a 0.64 correlation, with an average error of 7.7kts or 10.4%. Again, this is impressive for a single variable, and shows promise for the construction of a useful predictive empirical formula.
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