I have finished the sounding composite program. The averaging tends to smooth much of the detail out of the soundings, so to supplement the composite, I'll include each case sounding overlaid on the same plot. This will give some idea of the spread and common features. I will do this for the top 10 strong cases and bottom 10 weak cases.
Download NARR data for top 5-10 cases and bottom 5-10 cases to initialize WRF. Model should be run 18 hours from the time of event to 6 hours after, each for 24 hours.
From the model data, I am interested in finer time resolution soundings and locations of features that I have pointed out in the synoptic composites.
From this information, combined with the Anchorage-Cordova pressure gradient, and the sounding parameter data, I can construct an empirical predictive formula. I have already ran a few tests that return a greater than .50 correlation and only only a 7% error.
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